Natural disasters

Environmental risk is defined as the probability that a certain natural phenomenon may harm to human lives and/or anthropic activities

According to the recent publication ‘Natural Hazard Risk Atlas 2014’ Italy is the eighth country in the world and first in Europe in terms of risk with regard to natural events

Risk maps for Italy ( data from C.R.E.D. http://www.cred.be )

4.1 Earthquakes

Italy is one of the countries in the Mediterranean area with the highest seismic risk, due to its particular geographic position at the convergence of the African and Eurasian plates. The highest seismicity is concentrated in the central-southern part of the peninsula, along the Apennine ridge (Val di Magra, Mugello, Val Tiberina, Val Nerina, Aquilano, Fucino, Valle del Liri, Beneventano, Irpinia) in Calabria and Sicily and in some northern areas, like Friuli, part of Veneto and western Liguria. Only Sardinia is not particularly affected by seismic events.

In 2,500 years, Italy has been hit by over 30,000 medium to strong earthquakes measuring more than grade IV-V on the Mercalli scale, and by around 560 events of an intensity equal to or higher than grade VIII on the Mercalli scale. In the twentieth century alone, 7 earthquakes had a magnitude of 6.5 or more (grade X and XI on the Mercalli scale

In Italy, the relationship between the damage caused by earthquakes and the energy released during the events is much higher than in other countries with high seismicity, such as California or Japan.

Seismig risk in our region Lombardy

4.2 Eruptions

Italy, along with Iceland, has the highest concentration of active volcanoes in Europe and is one of the first countries of the world for number on inhabitants exposed to volcanic risk

In Italy volcanism owes its origin to a wide ranging geological process, involving the entire Mediterranean area and linked with the Euroasiatic and African tectonic plates converging together.

This process, begun 10 million years ago, at the same time as the mountain ranges of the Apennine chain were being built up, is due to the African plate sliding underneath the Euroasiatic one with subsequent formation of areas characterized by volcanism. It is in fact in these areas, inside the earth, where the conditions are created to form magmas and to propel them up towards the surface.

Even though less frequent and devastating than earthquakes, volcanic eruptions are still a great hazard for the densely populated zones in the Italian territory.

Italy is a volcanically active country, containing the only active volcanoes in mainland Europe

4.3 Floods and landslides

Italy has a long record of hydro-geological related events. Given its peculiar geomorphological conformation, Italy is particularly prone to floods and landslides. According to the recent 2015 update of the report on hydro-geological risk in Italy by the Higher Institute for Environmental Protection and Research (Istituto superiore per la protezione e la ricerca ambientale, ISPRA), at least the 18% of the national territory is exposed to hydrological or geological risk, affecting 88% of the Italian municipalities.

in Italy between AD 1279 and 2002 more than 50,593 people died, went missing, or were injured in 2580 flood and landslide events. The number of evacuated and homeless people for the same period exceeded 733,000.Harmful events were inventoried in 26.3% of the 8103 Italian municipalities. Fatal events were most frequent in the Alpine regions of northern Italy and were caused by both floods and landslides.

Landslide risk

Flood risk

Harmful landslides are triggered by highintensity or prolonged rainfall, rapid snowmelt, seismic shaking, and volcanic activity. Human activities including construction, excavations, mining, intense ploughing, and deforestation, contribute to the triggering/ of harmful landslides. The three most catastrophic landslides and floods events in the 20th century were all caused by or were associated with the presence (Vajont) or the failure (Gleno) of a dam or a man-made embankment (Stava). These catastrophic events indicate the potentially destructive effect of artificial structures and that poor planning in the design and management of man-made structures can result in numerous casualties. The failure of a landslide dam is also potentially a very destructive event, something that has also occurred in Italy (Vogogna)

Florence                                                              Vajont

4.4  Biodiversity loss

Italy is among the European countries richest in biodiversity, due mainly to a favourable geographical position and a wide variety of geological, climatic and vegetation conditions. Data and indicators announced in the ISPRA's yearbook of environmental data allow to outline the main features of biodiversity in Italy.

The Italian fauna is estimated at more than 58,000 species, of which about 55,000 species of invertebrates, mostly belonging to the class of insects, and 1,258 vertebrates. More detailed information regarding the latter also show significant rates of endemisms (encompassing species found only in limited territories), particularly amphibians (31.8%) and bony freshwater fishes (18.3%).

Even the Italian flora has a great richness: the groups of mosses and lichens are among the richest in Europe, while higher plants include 6,711 species, or 144 Pteridophytes, 39 Gymnosperms and 6528 Angiosperms.  The contingent of endemic species is quite significant and amounts to more than 15%.

Italy is also particularly rich in forest land, in gradual and continuous expansion: in the last three decades forestland increased of 26.7%, from 8,675,100 hectares in 1985 to 10,987,805 hectares in 2013.

Yet, this rich biodiversity is under serious threat, and is likely to be irretrievably lost, mainly due to the destruction, degradation and fragmentation of habitats, introduction of invasive alien species and the overexploitation of the natural capital.

Specifically, 672 (576 terrestrial and 96 marine) vertebrate species are considered under threat by the recent "IUCN Red List of Italian Vertebrates"; in recent times, 6 of these threatened species have become extinct in the region. The endangered species are 161 (of which 138 are terrestrial and 23 are marine), equal to 28% of the species assessed.

Regarding invertebrates, only 29%, are not threatened of extinction.

In our region the problemes are related to

- high population densities

- introduction to alien species

-degradation of the terrain

4.5  Climate change

Currently, the Italian territory is experiencing an increase in daily maximum and minimum temperatures, connected to a shift of the entire statistical distribution of values towards warmer temperatures and thus an increase in average temperature.

According to the models included in the Fourth Assessment Report, the Mediterranean hydrological cycle will be significantly influenced by global climate changes forecast for the XXI century. In fact, projections show a decrease in average annual precipitation in the Mediterranean area by about 20% (SRES A1B scenario, anomalies in the period 2070-2099 compared to 1950-2000)

A decrease in rainfall should be accompanied by an increase in evaporation in the Mediterranean region. With regard to the sea, this will mean an increase in surface water deficit. On land, most likely this will lead to a decrease in soil moisture, which will be particularly pronounced during the summer

On the Italian Alps we are observing a rapid "disintegration of the glaciers," a veritable "collapse" of the cryosphere, which results in the extinction of the smaller glaciers, the fragmentation of the major glaciers (e.g. Brenva on the Mont Blanc, Lys on the Monte Rosa, East Fellaria on Bernina), the emergence of ever larger rock "windows", the formation of numerous ice-contact glacial lakes and the increase of surface debris cover leading to the transformation of the Italian Alps glaciers from the classical "white" glaciers into "blacks glaciers, whose area of ablation is completely covered with debris thicker than 1 meter.